Transcript:
Easan Arulanantham:
Our first question relates to the market ran for the last two weeks. And now it’s kind of retreating. If you mentioned the semiconductor ETF multiple times Sox, you know, now that we’ve seen a pullback is a good time to add.
Tom Vaughan:
Yeah, it’s been interesting, you know, so x x is the iShares semiconductor ETF. And what we use in our portfolios pretty heavily right now, to buy semiconductor exposure, lots of different ways to do that individual stocks and ETFs. But it had a fantastic run in this upward movement, outpaced the market by a lot, is also outpacing the market on the downside. You know, also, it’s just a bit more volatile as far as that goes. So it’s not for everybody. We use it in a more aggressive portfolios, you know, that type of thing. But yeah, actually, I would be a buyer on the dips, because I believe that the semiconductor arena as a whole is really one of the most amazing places for the future, if you look at the reports that are going on, for the number of semiconductors that are being demanded, and how many they can build, and the restricted supply, and the amount of money that’s flooding into new production and what have you. So there’s always some, you know, potential headwinds with any investment area, but I do like semiconductor I do like that particular index. And, you know, specifically like Nvidia and AMD, for example. So when those pull back, I am interested, you know, I don’t know where bottoms are what have you, we’ve seen the S&P 500 just bounce, I’ll generally look at the overall market in this particular environment. If the overall markets bouncing I might be nibbling at the, at the dips here on those types of indexes. So yeah, I do like it.
Easan Arulanantham:
Could you use like the same indicator that you use for when you rebalance the portfolio? Would that be the same indicator you used to give advice on?
Tom Vaughan:
Yeah, I use a couple pieces. First of all, I like to see the VIX, you know, high, which is a Fear Index. Right now it’s quite low. Alright. So the Fear Index is down substantially. It was at 3536. It’s at 20. Now. And I like to use the RSI indicator, see that below 30. So the problem with that type of dip buying is a fairly infrequent, we did that. We had both of those signals come to us on January 24 And February 24. But we’re pretty far away from that right now. And I don’t know that we’re going to get back to that RSI level. And I don’t think we’re going to get back to that fixed level anytime soon. But if that did happen, yes, I would be a buyer, I would be rebalancing. But we’re in a different market now where now we’re kind of coming back up coming back up. And you know, my personal feeling has always been for the year, first half of the year, we get to zero, because we have this volatility. Second half of the year, we get to positive 10% on the S&P 500. That’s been my outlook from, you know, since late last year, actually. So it’s fitting well within my thought process. And so if that’s true, I might not see those buy signals again, in this recovery, so I’ve got to buy on more minor, you know, drops as far as that goes, if I want to buy on the dips, because I think the bigger dips are I hope actually, the bigger dips are behind us. Now, here’s the big thing about this environment that we’re in right now, there are a lot of things happening, that could cause a much bigger dip, right?
This, you know, all the things that we know about the Federal Reserve inflation, the supply chain issues, the situation in China with the lockdown from COVID, the scenario and Ukraine and Russia, right, all of those knowns and the gas and oil prices and materials and all of these things have been already kind of factored in. And the market just had a fantastic run in that environment. But what else is there? Yeah, it does the Russia default on some debt that creates a cascade of problems in other areas. And so there’s a lot of other possibilities. So if that happens, then obviously we would get another possible chance to buy on the dip with those more extreme signals. But I kind of go with what I see at the moment. Because there’s always COULDA, WOULDA shit as that happened, and this might happen that might happen. You know, I’ll react to that as they do happen. I’ll get more conservative if I need to and those types of things. But overall, the economy is still hot in my opinion. And the stock market already had its 15% Drop. I think we’re heading back upward. I would buy more minor dips with a semiconductor it might be one of my favorite areas to buy in, because it is down still, you know year to date, a fair amount so there’s still some bargain ish type purchases that you can make here in my opinion