Transcript
Everybody, welcome to Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down .8%. Today, and what you’re seeing right now, back on the 16th, you know, the S&P 500 hit a high. And we’re seeing just sort of a sideways turning motion altogether. Great up day yesterday, give back some today, we’re seeing churning motion. In general, inside the market itself, the value side did well, today better anyway, at the growth side did great yesterday. And so we’re just seeing this kind of motion, we’ve bounced out the portfolio between the growth in the value and the inverse and energy and the total stock market, I think that’s a good portfolio for a market like this, where you’ve got a lot of different things happening. But one of the things that keeps coming up, and I’ve been asked about is how the bond market seems to be having so much effect on the stock market. And so you have to understand a couple of things.
Number one, when inflation is expected, so there’s some thought process here that we’ve got, you know, this big stimulus coming out on top of, you know, this big pent up demand, and all of a sudden the economy is going to be roaring. And when it roars, generally inflation comes, I think that part of that is probably temporary personally, because one of the big things for inflation is the labor market. And when when unemployment gets really low, that means that they end up having to pay more for labor. And that’s when you start to see a lot more inflation. Unemployment is fairly high right now. And so I think what we’ll see here between the stimulus, and what we see from, you know, the economic portion of high growth, I think it’s short term, but the market is going to move and move those rates up. And so the other problem that is happening out there is that, with these stimulus programs course, you know, we’re running a deficit.
So one of the ways that we fund these stimulus programs is to sell treasury bonds, well, when you sell treasury bonds, and you sell enough of them, that can bring down the price, which makes the yield go up. So when the yield goes up, it creates a couple of other problems. Number one, sometimes the economy can slow down because of a higher yield, because everything’s kind of tied to that auto loans and mortgage loans and credit cards, business loans are all tied to the interest rates of these bonds. And so if those, you know, a portion start to go up, the economy could slow down, because more money is going off to interest payments, then going back into different purchases of goods or investments for companies. But the real issue, and I think the biggest part here is that the Federal Reserve wants to keep their federal funds rate, basically at zero for as long as possible. And if the market forces them to make a move, because of this rising interest rate that’s happening, that’s what the market doesn’t like, we’ve seen very strongly, the correlation between the increase in the federal funds rate and the decrease in the stock market.
Usually, it takes a little while, and we’re probably a ways away from that, but that the markets gonna react somewhat rapidly to that. So really, really incredible what’s happening all together, because we have this big churning going on within the stock market. And we also have this big turning going on in the bond market, almost all of it is actually pretty small amounts of up and down, but really still pretty rocky for within that range. And of course, you know, the thing we have to watch out for is just, you know, what’s it mean? You know, where’s it going to go? Is this a change of direction for the S&P 500 for the market itself, or just a, you know, spot that we’re waiting, I do love the strategy we have of having in in our little stop losses. And so we’ll just hang in there and see where things go, and then react as those, you know, things do transpire. But, but that’s why the bond market is really causing so much, you know, angst within the stock market.
You know, the bond market yields dropped yesterday, market took off bond market yields went up a little bit today, stock market struggled with that. So it’s one of the things that’s happening too, so it very interesting. All the pieces coming together, I think things are fine, personally, and we’ll just have to wait through, you know, this little rockiness and see what happens. All right. Well, thank you very much. I look forward to talking to you tomorrow. Thank you.