Transcript
Well, hello, everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was up just a little bit over 1% today. The broad market was up all the way across the stimulus bill got signed today. And we saw finally a day where both growth and value did fairly well growth a little better, but still nice, nice day. And I think the market is signaling that it likes what it sees here with the signing of this bill, in my opinion. But let’s talk about kind of what the impact will be and what’s going to happen. It really starts with the bond market. So when they have $1.9 trillion, that they need to get to fund this stimulus bill, they’re going to sell treasuries, well, it’s gonna be a lot easier to sell treasuries at one and a half percent, where it is now on a 10-year Treasury, for example, then it kind of the .6%, it was last summer. So we’ve already seen some increases in the yield of treasuries, I think, partly in anticipation of this particular bill coming out. I think from a standpoint of supply and demand for the treasuries I do think a lot of this stimulus bill is already built in.
But I do think there’s probably some room still for the yields to come up. Because when you combine the, you know, pent up demand, that’s going to be coming out here, with the $1.9 trillion that’s coming, you could see some higher inflation, which is another thing that can drive the yield of treasuries up, for example. So maybe we go from one and a half to 2%, for example, I do think we’re going to see at least temporarily and inflation spike, you know, that combination of pent up demand plus stimulus is crazy. And then very unique situation where all of the things that we really want to do go out to eat, get on an airplane, go somewhere, go vacation, go stay at a hotel, there’s a lot less of those places now and a lot less employees in those systems. And we’re all going to want to go out and do it at once. And we’re going to see this, you know, inflationary spike.
And so that’s going to make a rocky stock market, in my opinion, when you start to see and we’ve already seen this so far this year. But when you start to see, you know, treasuries coming up in yield, I think that’s going to make for a rockier market, I think it’s a harder thing for growth. And so that’s why we’ve kind of reduced some of that growth, although we still have a lot of in it in our taxable accounts. And then it’s going to be maybe a little bit easier for value, which tends to get better in a high economy growth situation, like we’re probably looking at here. And so once that kind of works its way through, I don’t see the significant inflation. Once we get through that particular bubble, and the airlines get back online, the restaurants get back online, and we start to see kind of supply starting to match the demand that’s coming in what have you, I don’t see huge inflation longer term, mainly because the labor market is so soft, there’s so many unemployed, and that’s one of the biggest pieces that drives inflation.
If a company wants this employee and another company wants that employee, and they start to have to pay higher and higher to get those people, that’s what eventually drives up the costs of production, and really, you know, ends up with a much higher inflationary situation, but worldwide unemployment is quite high. And the number of people that can come in off the sidelines to take jobs is going to keep the job market quite soft. Combine that with the fact that we have now created an even more efficient workplace caused by the pandemic. And the use of technology in all these different places, has caused a situation where we probably don’t need as many people to do what we were doing before, because of these efficiencies that we’ve been pushed into, because of the you know, pandemic. So, inflation in the short term, higher yields on treasuries. That’s why we have an inverse position still on those treasuries, because I think we’ll probably make some money on that, that causes some rockiness for the stock market. But more growth in value, probably as far as that rockiness goes, but then once we get kind of on the other side of that, okay, and then the market will be looking at that very quickly here because it does look forward.
Really, you could have a very nice situation with a with an economy that’s growing very, very smoothly, without all of this hyper inflationary pieces that are coming in, that we that we kind of have as a short term thing. On top of that we’re in the middle of the fourth industrial revolution that has not gone away, electric vehicles, all the technology for genomics and CRISPR, and artificial intelligence or robotics, none of that’s gone away. And we’re going to see, you know, continued probably growth there. Maybe they settle down for a while after the big stretch that we have last year, and they start to become again, you know, a really good investment area for us to look at also.
So I think things are great, and this is a really big deal. And what this does do is it creates a scenario where we don’t end up with everything kind of falling apart by some chance, you know, we’re gonna have problems on the upside too much growth and those types of things, which really for this massive group of unemployed, too much growth is can’t come fast enough to be honest. So it causes some issues for the markets. But altogether, I think things are really, really powerful here and all of the pieces that I look at for basics for why the market can do well are still here. Definitely. So I will look forward to seeing what’s gonna happen tomorrow. Thank you very much.