Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up 1.14% today, which is great, since we’ve had quite a few down days in a row here. We were down in the morning, though, like usual, unfortunately. But then again, Chairman Powell was testifying and said the right things as far as the market is concerned, just, you know, they’re willing to support, you know, the economy, and they, you know, those types of things. And then the market really turned around, and took off and kind of ran all day, actually. And we saw some good gains at us out of really all of the areas as a whole sign of the gross side and the value side, we did make some changes today, reduce some of our exposure to the growth side, just, you know, looking at those charts, and kind of what’s happening there, I think that the value side is really the place to go.
As I’ve always mentioned, you know, all of your portfolio’s there, you know, you know, the assets that are outside the ETFs that are outside your portfolio are competing to try to get in, we’ve had a lot of transactions here. Unfortunately, that’s not unusual in these types of environments where there’s this rotation, you know, although the S&P 500 has been going down, up until today, there’s still been a lot of money being made. And what’s really happening is not just like a losing market, kind of like we had last year, you know, with the virus, we’re just seeing a rotation, let me just show you really quickly, you know, where we’re at right now. And we can kind of take a look and see, and I’ll kind of explain how this is working.
This is our current 100% stock model. And again, if you are in an IRA, and you’re in our 100% model, and you’re in our traditional model versus our ESG model, this is exactly what you have, if you’re in a trust, or a taxable account, TOD account, or whatever it might be. This is the model that we’re trying to achieve and move towards. But again, we have to watch for taxes there. But just to kind of show you you know what’s happened here, we’ve got a Vanguard total stock market index, this is about 3600 stocks. It’s pretty much every stock on the US stock market of any substance, even a lot of the micro caps. And so it’s very broad based exposure. And then we have the mega cap value. So this is about 140. Stocks altogether very large, all in the value category. And then we have the S&P 500 Value. So this is actually made by Standard and Poor’s, and they choose these 500 stocks to put on this index. And Vanguard basically replicates that. And then we have the Vanguard Value index. And it seems like these are repeating each other. And there actually is a lot of duplication, you know, every one of these stocks here is in here.
Matter of fact, almost every stock is in there. And I purposely duplicate because I want to over concentrate in certain areas, especially if those areas are working. But at the same time, I’m able to, you know, find little bits and pieces that aren’t, let’s say in the mega cap that are in this one, these two have more mid cap in them, for example, we have our inverse position, this goes the abstraction, the S&P 500, obviously didn’t do well today. But I really liked this position and these types of markets, where you have this kind of volatility that’s going on, you know, once we do establish an upward direction, you know, on a consistent basis, we’ll remove that. But I think this is our parachute, especially since the bond pieces aren’t reacting as a parachute right now. We added this energy sector today. You know, as the economy recovers, this is starting to do really well. This really took off back in November, and it’s continuing to go. And our two growth pieces here online retail, and semiconductor, both of which are still in here, because they fell less. And they have much better looking chart patterns. And that’s one of the things I look for when things fall as a whole. And that whole growth categories falling, you know what holds up. And that tells me the market is interested in those. And online retail, it has held up fairly well. And semiconductors have held up really well my practice was had a big day today. And you can see this is an equal weight portfolio essentially, you know, the same amount in each piece. That’s not what I normally do. But I do that in these markets where things are going sideways, it’s hard to tell what’s going to work and not so we just spread it equally. And everybody owns some piece all the way through.
So if you’re in the 10% equity model, you know, you have 1.2%, essentially of all of these, as I’ll show you just real quickly the 60% model, as you can see same holdings, seven and a half percent each, essentially. And then here’s our bond pieces, you know, to short term bond pieces, and short term high yield, and a couple of longer term high yields. These are both fallen angels, which just means that they’re previously investment grade, you know, bonds that have fallen down into the high yield category. And so the hope is that when the economy turns around like it has been, these would move back up to investment grade and that obviously moves their values up. We’ve actually done fairly well with these. They look like they’re the same thing, but they’re not. They actually did differently today. So, so that’s, that’s where we’re at so far, I’m actually really happy with that had update today all together really good pieces, the stability should be, you know, a lot more succinct, we had a great ride with all of these, you know, clean energy innovative technology. And if those pop back up, you know, I’ll continue to do that. And so there’s eight pieces in that, you know, stock piece, and they’re just kind of battling to who gets in there, and got to growth pieces and energy piece, you know, an inverse three value pieces, and when total stock market, so that’s where it’s at now. And you know, that’ll change, hopefully not as much going forward, I think we’ve probably found something that we should be able to hold on to here.
But you know, I, I don’t know where the markets going, I just react. And so if I had a predictive model, I could get out at the top every time and, but I haven’t met anybody that has that. So what I do is I kind of wait, see what’s happening, you know, we’re surfing waves. So, you know, when the waves in one part of the beach or, you know, stop, you know, we go down to another part of the beach, go down to the value part of the beach, and we get on those waves, and we start to make money again. And, you know, we’ve been doing this for, you know, the last 12 months, certainly. And unfortunately, it’s become kind of necessary, you know, the virus came and it created a situation where a whole bunch of waves disappear. But there were still some big ones left. And then it started to spread out. And now the vaccines coming and it’s created waves back in an area. We haven’t seen waves in for quite a while. And that’s the value area. So you know, we’ll see what happens. But really, you can see a really big movement in this direction. And everybody’s running over there. And so that momentum is picking up. We’ll see how that plays out. But great to talk to you today. Good day for us. And let’s see what happens tomorrow. Thank you very much.