Shelter-in-Place Stock Market Update 2.1.2021 – We bounced off important support. Now what?

Tom Vaughan is a Certified Portfolio Manager and CEO of Retirement Capital Strategies. Retirement Capital Strategies is a registered investment advisor located in San Jose, California.

The opinions voiced in these presentations are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual(s). The information provided herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Asset allocation and portfolio diversification cannot assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information contained in these materials in making any investment decision as the material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned in this presentation. Before acting on information discussed in this presentation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Prospectuses, investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any investment product should be reviewed carefully before investing. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Retirement Capital Strategies and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Tom Vaughan or Retirement Capital Strategies unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information, comments and questions. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. Investment positions mentioned in these videos may be held in some of our existing portfolios. Tom Vaughan and Retirement Capital Strategies are unaffiliated and separate from those companies whose investment positions are mentioned and is not liable for their products or services.

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Transcript

Well, hello, everybody, welcome to Monday, today was a Green Shirt day. For those of you who don’t know, haven’t been watching this for a long time, the Green Shirt means the market was up more than one & half percent on the S&P 500. I also wear the Red Shirt when it’s down more than one & half percent also. So today, the S&P 500 was up 1.6%. It was quite a powerful day, actually. And it was some very important things that happened today. And just let me share again, my chart with you.

So you can see, you know what I’m talking about here. But first of all, in this case, I’m gonna use SPY, which is a very popular State Street version of the S&P 500 index. Again, this is the last One-Year. And we can see what’s happening here. In terms of sort of downturn, let me zoom in a little bit, so you can see a little closer. So you can see here what happened, you know, we came down just like kind of expected on Friday, you can see what we bounced off of really was this, you know, highest level of closed support. And then today, we came up and it was a fairly good day, the overall daily volume was a bit lower today. So it wasn’t super powerful, but a good day very strong, especially in the categories that we’re interested in with Clean Energy and Innovative Technology, and what have you, too. So now, what’s very interesting here, what is what is once support becomes resistance. So for example, once we fell through this level, we now have this resistance above us. So again, the idea would be that these people bought here someplace and it dropped. And when it comes back, they’re interested in selling to get their money back. And so you can see that the market actually bounced right off of that, I’d suspect that we might do a little bit of sideways motion in here and, and work through this, before we really move, you don’t normally see things again, come straight back up.

You know, there’s usually a little bit of a gap in here between, you know, the highs, if we’re going to get back to a high. So I think, you know, it’s great, we were sitting at a point of decision-making, or the Y in the road. If the market falls through, you know, that support that we bounced off of on Friday, you know, there wasn’t a lot of support underneath that, and we could have had a bigger downturn still might happen. But it’s fairly easy to kind of see what might happen when it’s down first started, you know, we’re gonna come down to the support level. But then past that point, we really don’t know what’s going to happen, you know, we have to wait and see what the market tells us. Again, you know, gotta be very careful with predictions versus reactions. I prefer, you know, reacting for the most part, I do use predictions for short term pieces. So I really felt strongly that the market was, you know, making some weird, you know, motions, and we rebalanced on Tuesday, the day before all this started, and effectively reduced our overall stock market exposure and so doing, and that turned out to be a really good thing. So, you know, sometimes you do small things, based on, you know, kind of your predictive abilities or what have you, you know, so that’s one of the reasons I’ll go from, you know, 65 to 55%, for example, on our 60% Portfolio.

So, I think what we have to watch for here is just, you know, what happened last week was that all of these hedge funds had to get rid of a lot of positions in order to cover their losses on the short sells bring their, you know, risk tolerance back into the right level. And they had to sell a lot of really good quality things. I mean, Apple had a fantastic, you know, result in their quarterly earnings went up, and then that whole GameStop thing started and it went down. Not because there’s a problem with Apple, I believe, but because of, you know, just people have to sell to gather cash. And they owned a lot of the same things we did, which have been doing great, they’re probably the same reason we have them. And so a lot of things that we have sold off last week, exactly the opposite today. Really good movement upward. So, but it is something to watch for, you know, they try to make a run on silver. Now, we’ll see what happens there. And so this is probably a little bit of a continuing thing, my overall thought process so far, is that none of this is big enough to really cause any significant problems.

You know, these are smaller situations than what we had, say in 2008, when everybody had to cover their, you know, bets on mortgages. And so that’s what’s happened today. Very fascinating day. Tomorrow is going to be very important, you know, to we just kind of go sideways? Do we go back down a little bit test that low, or do we continue up? You know, obviously, we got to watch and see if we fall through that support level. So you know, tomorrow and these next Actually, this week, I think will be very interesting to see what the market does. Alright, look forward to talking to you tomorrow. Thank you very much.

Tom Vaughan is a Certified Portfolio Manager and CEO of Retirement Capital Strategies. Retirement Capital Strategies is a registered investment advisor located in San Jose, California.

The opinions voiced in these presentations are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual(s). The information provided herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Asset allocation and portfolio diversification cannot assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information contained in these materials in making any investment decision as the material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned in this presentation. Before acting on information discussed in this presentation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Prospectuses, investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any investment product should be reviewed carefully before investing. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Retirement Capital Strategies and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Tom Vaughan or Retirement Capital Strategies unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information, comments and questions. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. Investment positions mentioned in these videos may be held in some of our existing portfolios. Tom Vaughan and Retirement Capital Strategies are unaffiliated and separate from those companies whose investment positions are mentioned and is not liable for their products or services.

By participating in any of these live streams, you agree that any questions submitted by you might be used by us in the future on this YouTube channel. We will not share your personal information.

If you have questions, please write to us at: asktom@talkmoneywithtom.com.

  • MoneyGuidePro®
  • Advent Software/Black Diamond Reporting
  • Riskalyze, Inc.
  • thinkpipes®
  • Right Capital
  • YCharts, Inc.