Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Friday. Today the S&P 500 was down about .7%. On the good news side, again, 31 of our 35 indexes and you know, broad and target indexes were did better than the S&P 500. Today is Friday. And I like to do positive things on Friday to kind of get you through the weekend. And I’ve done a couple of these lists of all the things that I see that are positive right now, I like to do another one and kind of refresh that these are reasons the market could go up, might go down. But these are the reasons they could go up. And I realized there’s lots of reasons it could go down.
Again, I’m not focusing on those, because those are prevalent in the press everywhere, very easy to find very difficult to find a list like this, as far as I’m concerned, I’ll make a few political statements here just to kind of what’s happening. I’m not trying to pick sides or anything, I’m just going to tell you, you know, historically what has happened in different situations, and how it might affect the stock market. So if we start with kind of just what’s happening on a technical basis within the market, this, again, is the Vanguard’s version of the S&P 500. We can see the blue line here is the 20-day moving average is moving up 50-day moving average is moving up the 200-day moving average is moving up all very good things I’ll show an upward moving trend. Price is above all of those, which is great, very powerful. This is the volume by price. And we can see there’s tons of support below where we are. So if things do get poor, starts to fall, maybe won’t fall as much because of all the support that’s here as far as that goes. And then looking, you know, again, long term, it kind of the trends that we’re dealing with here.
This is the S&P 500 for the last 25 years, you see the ups and downs. But this Elliott Oscillator is something that I follow. Again, this is monthly data, but it turned red only twice once here in 2000 downturn, once here in the 2008, it did not turn red here, which turned out to be right, right, we held in there and we made money. And it’s definitely not even close to being red right now. So those are really good things. It is you know, almost December. December can be a very good month, they call it the Santa Claus rally, I think this particular Christmas, there’s gonna be a lot of pent up demand, there’s a lot of money that’s been saved. And you know, kids are home and trying to keep them entertained and what have you, we could see a very big Christmas from this, you know, this year. China has seen some explosive growth in their economy, they could be the driver of global growth, or at least in the short term that might help us also. On the virus front, you know, we’ve had positive vaccine news, I think that continues to happen. We’ve only heard from two of the 12 vaccines that are in stage three trials, both of which have been positive so far, you know, Pfizer applied for their emergency use looks like they might have something available, you know, in December for kind of these frontline people to use, which would be really amazing. If this starts to happen that quickly, therapies are improving, of course, then, you know, the virus is spiking, obviously, we’re all seeing the daily counts go up dramatically. But the lockdowns that we’re seeing economically are much softer than what we saw back in March, April and May.
So we’re not seeing as big of a hit in the economy, or figuring out how to operate the economy a little bit better, even in this virus scenario, even with these spiking, situations that are happening. So according to the Brookings Institute, majority of the spike is happening in the red states as a whole. And then they noted that 70% of the gross domestic product is coming out of blue counties. And so and the blue states are getting hit less. So theoretically, this virus spike could have less impact on the economy. Horrible scenario to have it grow like this, but I’m just trying to point out what it might mean for the economy. As far as that goes, in terms of the government and the politics, you know, the Federal Interest rates right now are at zero, that’s actually one of the biggest drivers, I could say that over and over again, because it’s the most important thing, you know, when when nobody can make money, and the banks and the bonds are not paying much real estate and stocks generally get a lot of those money, at least historically, I think federal stimulus is going to come again, I think that’s going to help as far as that goes, might have to wait until next year. And if we play out kind of what’s happening here with a Democratic president. And let’s say the Democrats win the two seats in Georgia, they theoretically have control of the Congress as a whole, Senate and House. They could raise taxes on corporations, which would be a negative, but they also might have the ability to do a much bigger stimulus plan, which I think would be an offset, I think next year could be offset by that.
On the other hand, if the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, historically a Democratic president with the split, Congress has done the best actually said the best way to turn on the last 120 years looking at the Dow, and we probably wouldn’t see an increase in taxes, which again, the market would like. So I think you could craft scenarios that might be positive in both of those situations, lots of other issues to deal with there besides the market. But again, my job is to tell you about the market. There is still $4.5 trillion sitting in the side and these money markets, which aren’t paying it much at all, that we’re starting to see some of that money come in, I think we’ll continue to see that money come in. And then I mentioned this last time, but the market is broadening and it’s continuing to broaden. You know, it used to just be kind of advanced healthcare and technology. And then it just really kind of started moving September and October is continues. Now we’re seeing value stocks, small stocks, emerging markets. And we’re even seeing some of the market gains happen even though the big tech stocks aren’t doing that.
Well, your, your Apples and Microsofts and those types of things are kind of just slowly moving along. There aren’t the leaders, right? I think that’s great. I think we need broadened leadership, and we’re seeing that. So those are the positive things that I see right now. And we’ll you know, we’ll have to check in on that again in another month or two and see where things are. But right now, hopefully that helps you get through the weekend. And let’s see what happens. You know, next week, thank you very much for listening.