Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Thursday, had pretty wild ride today the market was up, and then it was down, I thought I was gonna have to change shirts and put on a red shirt for a while and then it bounced back up. S&P 500 ended up down 1.2%. A couple of significant things happen today. Number one, unemployment was higher than expected. And so one of the things that I talked about it, this is my opinion, but I feel like about three quarters of the movement in the stock market in the long term has to do with what’s happening in the future, and six months to 24 months from now, kind of depending on the situation. And the rest is dealing with current news and surprises one way or another about that news.
So when you hear, you know, unemployment is higher than expected, the market has already factored in a certain unemployment level. And when it’s lower, it makes an adjustment. And so that’s pretty much what we saw today. We did see it bounce off of the last support level that we have, which I think is really great. My effective support levels have been unbelievably predictive. So far, this last support level is not super strong when we spent about five days there, and there’s a tremendous amount of volume at those prices. But it still held today. And we’ll have to wait and see what happens, you know, going forward.
I think one of the other things that’s very informative about today is that all of the bond pieces that we have in our portfolio were positive for the day, they all made money. And I talked about that kind of that parachute to have in the portfolio. So if you have 40% stock and 60% bond, you get this parachute. Or if you have 80% stock and 20% bond, it’s a smaller parachute, but it’s still there. And so for example, our long term Treasury holding was up 1.1% today, so you know, S&P 500 was down 1.2. So that’s, that’s a big difference.
And then our extended duration treasuries up 1.5% not everybody has all of those. Those longer term and extended duration treasuries are reserved more for the aggressive, more stock portfolios because they need more lift to offset the stocks when they do drop. But it worked today, and that’s great. So I’m very happy with that. Very interesting. See what happens tomorrow. Do we hold the support and do we bounce back or what have you. So look forward to talking to you about that then, and have a good evening. Thank you.