Shelter-in-Place Market Update 11.10.2020. The rubber band effect.

Tom Vaughan is a Certified Portfolio Manager and CEO of Retirement Capital Strategies. Retirement Capital Strategies is a registered investment advisor located in San Jose, California.

The opinions voiced in these presentations are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual(s). The information provided herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Asset allocation and portfolio diversification cannot assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information contained in these materials in making any investment decision as the material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned in this presentation. Before acting on information discussed in this presentation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Prospectuses, investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any investment product should be reviewed carefully before investing. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Retirement Capital Strategies and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Tom Vaughan or Retirement Capital Strategies unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information, comments and questions. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. Investment positions mentioned in these videos may be held in some of our existing portfolios. Tom Vaughan and Retirement Capital Strategies are unaffiliated and separate from those companies whose investment positions are mentioned and is not liable for their products or services.

By participating in any of these live streams, you agree that any questions submitted by you might be used by us in the future on this YouTube channel. We will not share your personal information.

If you have questions, please write to us at: asktom@talkmoneywithtom.com.

  • MoneyGuidePro®
  • Advent Software/Black Diamond Reporting
  • Riskalyze, Inc.
  • thinkpipes®
  • Right Capital
  • YCharts, Inc.

Transcript

Everybody, welcome to Tuesday, another incredible week that is following that week last week, that was pretty incredible. The S&P 500 was just down a little bit today, .14%. But one of the questions I want to answer today that was asked of me yesterday was, you know, the S&P was up yesterday, we even got to record territory for a little while, why was my account down. And there’s two main reasons why it was down.

First of all, last week was the biggest week I’ve ever seen in my 34 year career for our portfolios doing better than the market. And so sometimes, when that happens, again, it’s a little bit like a rubber band, you know, you can only stretch it so far before it kind of snaps back. And the average is kind of work out. So that’s part of what is happening here, in my opinion. But also, we have a rotation that is going on, at least yesterday, a little bit today, too, with the news about the vaccine, all of a sudden, people are starting to take a look at these other stocks that are out there.

And you know, airlines and cruise lines and restaurants and those types of things that need a vaccine. And more importantly, they’re actually selling off some of the pieces that we own in our portfolio, which do really well even if there is no vaccine. So let me show you just a couple of details here real quickly, kind of share some stuff with you here. So this is the Vanguard version of the S&P 500. You can see yesterday it broke out, you know, above this range fell back down today, you know, just kind of went sideways here. But again, we are balancing off of this support here, which is awesome.

That’s what I said before, once we get up into this rarefied territory of support here, here, here, here. And so we’ve got some good places to go. But let’s take a look at a couple different things. Let’s look at the Smart Mobility piece that we have. So here’s Smart Mobility, right, great run the 50-day moving average is going straight up, it’s way above the 50-day moving average, even though it’s down today. And yesterday, it was still way above the 200-day moving average got great support with all the prices, so I’m okay with that, here’s online retail. Again, 50-day moving average is going up prices above that great support here that’s balancing off way above the 200-day moving average. Pet Care is kind of an interesting one, you know, great run here, a pretty good sized drop yesterday, but it bounced off of the 50-day moving average, which is still going up, it’s right in here in this good support level, way above the 200-day moving average.

You know, the last one I’ll take a look at here, it’s just clean energy. This is practically a 45 degree angle of things going straight up. And it’s really up there. It’s bouncing off a great support, even though it had a bad day yesterday and a little bit today. So I’m not too worried about what’s happening right now with these holdings, we do have to watch and make sure that this rotation that happens, you know to be going on towards these other stocks, if it really goes and it continues to go, we’re gonna need to make some adjustments. But in the past, this is the fifth or sixth time this has happened since March. They’ve failed every time about two to five days, it kind of goes on and it fails. Because the reality of how long it’s going to take for the vaccine to work, it hits. But remember that the market is looking way in advance here. And so if it feels that these companies can do well, you know, in the next year to two years, because of some vaccine, it’s going to start moving early.

So we have to watch at the moment. I’m pretty happy with what we have. I’m not willing to jump ship yet. You know, but I’m not going to be stubborn either. So we just got to keep watching and keep seeing what’s happening. Hopefully you can see for some of these charts, why I’m excited about what we have. And I want to keep going with them as far as that goes. Then we’ll see where it goes from here. All right, thank you very much. Hope to talk to you tomorrow.

Tom Vaughan is a Certified Portfolio Manager and CEO of Retirement Capital Strategies. Retirement Capital Strategies is a registered investment advisor located in San Jose, California.

The opinions voiced in these presentations are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual(s). The information provided herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Asset allocation and portfolio diversification cannot assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information contained in these materials in making any investment decision as the material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned in this presentation. Before acting on information discussed in this presentation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Prospectuses, investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any investment product should be reviewed carefully before investing. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Retirement Capital Strategies and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Tom Vaughan or Retirement Capital Strategies unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information, comments and questions. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. Investment positions mentioned in these videos may be held in some of our existing portfolios. Tom Vaughan and Retirement Capital Strategies are unaffiliated and separate from those companies whose investment positions are mentioned and is not liable for their products or services.

By participating in any of these live streams, you agree that any questions submitted by you might be used by us in the future on this YouTube channel. We will not share your personal information.

If you have questions, please write to us at: asktom@talkmoneywithtom.com.

  • MoneyGuidePro®
  • Advent Software/Black Diamond Reporting
  • Riskalyze, Inc.
  • thinkpipes®
  • Right Capital
  • YCharts, Inc.