Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Tuesday. The S&P 500 was down about .3% today, but we did pretty well actually. Microsoft was our leader, it was up one and a half percent. And then Apple was up 1.4, Petcare was up 1.3. And again, it’s different every day, we’re seeing a lot of churn as far as that goes. But it’s nice that we’re seeing something happened almost every day. Microsoft reported their earnings after the market closed. And they ended up with really good earnings.
You know, a year ago, the same quarter, they made $1.38 a share. And then the analysts expected them to make $1.52 a share this this quarter, and they ended up with $1.82 a share. So it’s really good. And it’s what I was saying before, I think earnings season here for the companies that were involved in could be really good. And we could see some good movement, because they’re making good money in this environment. And so I want to share something though, with you that I ran across, I find very interesting.
One of the things that gets really confusing is this what’s called sentiment. And so what happens is, when a lot of people think the market is going to go one way, it generally goes the other way, because everybody’s on one side of the equation, and then there’s only a few people left. So if everybody thinks the markets gonna crash, the market generally goes up, the higher that gets, at least historically. And so I’ll share with you just a quick piece here that I think you might find interesting. And what we’re looking at here is just historical results, going back to 2001. In this case, when the fear of a crash is the highest, the market is making more money, the S&P 500 make 24 and 45% in the next 12 or 24 months.
When the fear of the crash is the lowest, the market actually made less. Okay. So that’s, that’s really big differential there, too. Here’s the current chart. So the fear is the highest when it gets low. Sounds backwards. That’s how it works on this chart. And so 2009 was the previous record for this index that was developed by Robert Shiller, who’s a professor at Yale is fairly well known in our business. And this index just started in 2001. And we just hit the lowest point since 2001. And this turned out to be a really, really good spot to buy. The market went up tremendously from there. So maybe something like that will help us here.
In 2009, the market was low, a lot more room to go up. Now, the markets fairly high, not as much room but this is a supporting factor. This sentiment indicators I tend to look at quite heavily. So that’s what we’re seeing right now. A really fascinating, you know, elections coming so let’s wait and see what happens. And I look forward to talking to you tomorrow. Thank you very much.