Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Tuesday. The S&P 500 was up 1.05% today, which was great. If you remember back to Friday, we had a really good day on Friday. The market was up quite a bit, and then of course yesterday, the market was down quite a bit. So it’d be nice to see some follow through tomorrow, and have a couple of good days on the upside. We did have a little drop off at the end of the day. So we’ll see if that carries through one way or another tomorrow.
The house is working on a debt ceiling increase bill that they will pass through to the Senate tomorrow. And we’ll see how that vote goes, we’ll see how the market reacts to that. Lots of talk about kind of having a Friday deadline to get some debt ceiling piece through, Friday, of course, is the release of the jobs number. And if you remember, last month, really, we had 235,000 jobs when there was roughly 750,000 expected. That was the beginning really of this particular downturn that we’ve have going on right here. So this Friday will be important to to see what that jobs report is, if it’s a lot higher like they’re hoping or not. So, a couple pieces, a lot of data, that’s coming out right now as far as that goes.
I think one of the things that’s happening is you’ve got this scenario right now where there are some headwinds that really weren’t there before, and all these good things that are there were there before and they’re still there. Low interest rates, lots of money on the sidelines. Really no place else to go except for the stock and maybe the real estate market as far as that goes. And all of the good things that have been there as far as the market goes.
But, we’ve had some newer things. We have the Federal Reserve talking about raising rates and cutting back on purchases. We’ve got supply chain issues that are creating some problems. So, they’re lasting longer than was expected, and it’s affecting company earnings. If you can’t get the products to sell, and you were expected to get the products to sell, and you projected a certain amount of earnings, you might be missing those earnings as far as that goes. And the market has to adjust for that.
So I think in a normal timeframe, if you really look at kind of the pros and the cons of what’s going on the market it’s fairly balanced, actually. And I think we have a good chance of having a decent market, slow growth in that environment, because we’ve got some good things going on. But when you put the debt ceiling in there, it just kind of pushes it to the wrong side.
It is an issue that can be solved. It is more of a political technical issue than it is really, a situation where we can’t pay the debt, right? So that’s a huge, huge factor. Still have to be careful, because if they do somehow mess up the calculus here on trying to get something through, the results could be quite dramatic.
So again, we’ve got a little bit more conservative today. Kind of took some money off in this rally that happened today. I just felt like it’s still a good time to be a little cautious once the debt ceiling is resolved. Certainly can start to get back in, but I would be a little cautious here. I think that just makes sense as far as that goes. We’re certainly not really losing out on much over the last couple of weeks. The market is down some so that’s worked out okay, as far as that goes. So we’ll see how that plays out. But I look forward to seeing what’s gonna happen tomorrow. We’ve got this vote. How does the market react to that? I think that’d be quite fascinating. So look forward to talking to you then. Thank you very much.