Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Everybody, welcome to Monday, the S&P 500 was down 3.9%. Today, really a carry through from what happened on Thursday and Friday of last week, the inflation number came out higher than expected was some expectation that might come down and march was the peak overall inflation actually went up core inflation, when you take out energy and food prices did drop, actually. And March has been the peak for that. It’d be very interesting to see what the Federal Reserve does here. Because the Tuesday and Wednesday meeting, and then chairman Powell comes out. And there’s some expectations that they might be talking about more rate increases September, some articles, I’m seeing maybe a three quarter point increase, and that wasn’t expected or even a 1% increase from the Federal Reserve, and that type of thing. So that’s why the market is adjusting to the downside there. Because it is the fear that the Federal Reserve is going to look at this huge inflation number and then maybe overreact at some point in the future, or even under react, which is another fear depends on which side of the table you’re on. And nonetheless, they’ve got this kind of small window to be able to move through with their rate increases, and see what the market really ends up believing in as far as that goes. So we do have some other really important reports coming out today from us this week from the retail sales, you know, we had a very negative Consumer Sentiment Survey that came out last week. But you know, what happens with their actual spending, I suspect will probably still be okay, but we’ll find out, you know, soon.
And then, of course, Friday is the leading economic indicators. And again, that peaked out in March and just waiting for that to come down enough to be able to hit what I call a peak. And so we’ll see an A might get more, you know, conservative and defensive on Friday, if I see that number fall far enough. But I really want to wait, we’re near a rebalancing point right now. And I just don’t want to rebounds by some pieces, and then sell them again, if we decide to, you know, go on a conservative, more defensive route. So we’ll see how this plays out. I suspect that the market has stretched so far to the downside, we should see a little bit of stability here. It won’t take a lot from the Federal Reserve’s comments on Wednesday to get the market going in the right direction, just because again, the negativity that’s out there is so high as far as that goes. So very fascinating timeframe, of course, and we’ll see how this plays out. But we’ll hang in there, we did take this opportunity in our taxable accounts to harvest some losses. I’ve been waiting for kind of this pulldown if we got it to do that. So we can kind of maximize that we rotated into some positions, allowing us to sell and capture some losses, we took a lot of gains, that being a year on some pieces that we had really from back in 2020. That did really well, glad we sold those, but we still have some high capital gains on the accounts. And I’d like to whittle those down throughout the year to try to pass along a smaller capital gain if we can, or even, you know, take them all away if we possibly can. So we’ll see how that goes. We’ll continue to look at that. And push on that for the next week or two if the market does kind of stay in these downward states spot, so wouldn’t be surprised see some stability here. Again, pretty stretched out. We’ll see what happens as far as that goes. But looking forward to talking to you tomorrow really good week to pay attention. This is a very fascinating timeframe with all the reports that are coming out and the Federal Reserve and what have you too, so talk to you tomorrow. Thank you