Transcript:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Monday, great day, S&P 500 was up 1.44% today, and it really seems to be coming off of the great jobs report that came out on Friday, the expectation was around 700,000 new jobs created in March. And it actually came out at 916,000 new jobs. And so the market moved up. But one thing to really understand about the jobs report is that it doesn’t always create a market that goes up just because the number is good. Sometimes it can go the exact opposite way. So let me explain.
One of the key criteria that you see, for stock market investing is what the Federal Reserve is doing. So when the Federal Reserve is raising rates, oftentimes, that’s creating all kinds of different pressures for earnings. It’s also creating pressures on the stock market for competitive asset classes, like CDs, and bonds that pay a lot more. And so the market is constantly focused on what the Federal Reserve might do. So let’s say that you have a jobs report that comes out. And it’s great, it’s really, really high, and the market drops.
And the reason being is that long term, one of the key things that is affecting inflation is the number of people that are unemployed. So the more the job market gets tight, the more companies have to pay to get the employees that they really want. And that causes an impossible inflation, and then that causes the Federal Reserve to start raising rates. Well, this time great jobs report, big beat over the expectations market went up. And it’s because we’re in the situation right now, there’s a lot of unemployed 6% of the population is on the unemployment roles. And if you look at all of the people that fell off the roles, and all the part time people that would like to get a job, we’re still at 10.7% of American adults that are looking for work, or looking for a better job, that type of thing. And so that kind of creates a situation where the market in the job areas still kind of soft. And so a big jump over expectations, market goes up, because now we’re looking for a reopening, we’re looking for an economic growth, to make sure we don’t slide backwards, and you know, go back to where we were last year. So that makes this job market, this job particular report, a really good thing.
And I think the other part of this that I thought was very exciting. The biggest area of growth within that report was from the leisure and entertainment section of the economy. So that’s, that’s really important. So we’re starting to see kind of reopening pieces come manufacturing is really, really hot. We’re seeing in a lots of consumer behavior, that’s been awesome. And we’re seeing in a leisure and entertainment start to reopen, hiring, getting back to kind of where we were before. over a little bit over 4 million doses were given out to the vaccine on Friday. And looking back, we’re basically doing about a percent a day of the US population. So we’re at 31%, right now have vaccinated all all, all of Americans, including kids. And you know, again, if we do percent every single day, just 30 days from now, it could be in a little over 60%. And we’re starting to get to a point then, where we’re going to have everybody vaccinated, that kind of wants to be vaccinated fairly quickly. This is happening very, very fast. And we seem to be getting even faster. So I suspect we’ll actually do more than a percent today over the next 30 days, because we’re just getting more efficient on delivering that vaccine for those people that do want it.
So the reopening stories happening, it’s really good job market looks like it’s improving, which is also very good. We’re getting the type of growth in the job market that is letting the market go up instead of down. And I think that’s, you know, a really good thing as far as that goes. So, you know, between the manufacturer report last Thursday, which was a big surprise to the upside, and then this jobs report, which again, is a big surprise to the upside. And the thing we’re really going to be looking for and where we really make money is when companies surprise to the upside with their earnings reports. And value stocks are more positioned for that reopening stocks are more positioned for that that’s where we’re sitting right now.
We saw a really big move today in transportation type stocks, you know, these are airlines, these are, you know, delivery companies like UPS, Federal Express, you know, all of these rental car companies, so moving consumers or consumer goods, you know, railroads, etc. And again, you’re seeing the movement in those stocks, because there’s an expectation that there’s going to be more movement of consumers and more movement of consumer goods because we’ve got all this pent up demand. So that’s a position that we bought last week, that day.
Really well today. So looking forward to seeing what’s going to happen here. Very exciting time, things are starting to develop quickly. I hope that just continues to roll forward and we’ll see how this plays out but look forward to talking to you tomorrow. Thank you.