Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 1.5%. Today, a nice green shirt day. One of the biggest catalysts was that the unemployment claims actually went up more than expected to under 35,001st Time unemployment claims. In a normal environment, that would not be good news, because you know, more people are unemployed. And in this environment, it’s exactly the opposite. This is where good news, you know, can be bad and bad news can be good. And essentially, what’s happening here is because we have such a tight labor market, when that labor market starts to soften up, that can help to take some of the pressure off of inflation, we’re gonna get the jobs report tomorrow, which is how many jobs were created for the month of June. And again, normally, you’d want lots of jobs, and certainly wanted that in 2020, and 2021, as we were coming back out of the shutdown. Now, lots of jobs means a tight labor market. So really looking for less jobs created, just again, the job market is a big piece of the issue that we have with inflation. As far as that goes, we saw some other things today that are interesting, that are anti inflationary, or at least don’t help. And that’s the fact that oil went up there, Russia’s messing around with some of the oil coming out of Kazakhstan, for example, and we had to, you know, jump in the price of oil. So you know, you’re gonna have all these battling things that are going on, to try to see what happens in the markets reacting positively to this as a whole right now, because the thought processes maybe things slow down enough that the Fed can can do less in terms of their rhetoric and or their raising of rates. They did have some interviews today with a couple of Fed governors, they both said that they didn’t think we would be in a recession, even with these raising interest rates. That has been their outlook consistently.
The market, I don’t think agrees with that completely. And the Fed has been wrong in the past. So we’ll see how that plays out. But they both talked about raising rates, three quarters from present, they were going to back that themselves in this next meeting that’s going to happen here in July. So you know, that’s the big fear, are they going to overdo the rate increases in an environment where things are already slowing down? Are there some other geopolitical issues that might happen like with Russia, maybe pulling back on the delivery of oil to kind of bring the price up a lot and bring inflation in, even though we have slowing and all kinds of other areas of the market. So that can be kind of a really tough situation to deal with, for the stock market and the Federal Reserve. So we’ll see how this plays out. It’s nice to see it, move all the way back up to where it was. We had a low sit in the middle of June, bounced up to basically where we are now, Phil, and we’ll come back to that again, we’ll see if there’s, you know, enough power to get through that point of resistance or not. It’s a holiday week, hard to tell, fairly light volume. Maybe more information will come next week. So we’ll see what happens. So if you would like to you can join me for my show tomorrow from 1215 to one o’clock, I’d talk money with Tom on YouTube. I’ll cover a summary of what I see happening for the week at the beginning of that show. And you can ask questions and those types of things too. So look forward to seeing you and I’ll talk to you tomorrow. Thank you.