Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 1.2%. Today, we’ve had a lot of different things happening one of the busiest weeks of the year, that gross domestic product was reported it was down point 9%, that’s two down quarters in a row. Usually, that’s the definition of a recession. Lots of debates about that right now we’ll see how that plays out. Apple reported after hours, they’re up nearly 3%, Amazon reported after hours are up over 12%. So some really good things happening after hours for all of these big companies that have been reporting, and lots of run ups here. So we’re going to make some changes to the portfolio, I have felt like we are standing on the edge of a cliff. Basically, the market is expecting this kind of perfect scenario, where the Federal Reserve starts to lower rates and February. And the Federal Reserve has said that they won’t stop until they get to 2%. Inflation, we’re at nine. So the market is essentially assuming that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to raise rates, inflation is going to fall faster than expected. And get down to 2%, let’s say by next January, giving room for the Federal Reserve to then start lowering rates, that seems like a low probability path.
At the moment, I’m going to take the inverse positions off the table. And we’re back, we have backed away from the cliff, I talked about building a backpack, I’m sorry, a parachute in case we fall off the cliff, I’m gonna basically take some of the pieces out of that parachute, make it a little bit smaller, we’ll keep our t build positions for now until we see continued, you know, you know, good things happening from the market. But the market is very, very hot right now, a lot of that probably has to do with the fact that, you know, all of the big players are on the sidelines, really just not participating, because they see the same things that I’m talking about where the Fed is going to have a hard time bringing down rates without kicking into a really hard recession. So we’ll see how this plays out, could work out well for the market could just be a fake move. But we’re still pretty safe as far as that goes. So we’ll see you know how this plays. But I’ll spend a little bit more time talking about kind of, really what I see happening here. You know why the market could go down further and get below where it was back in mid June, and why it could continue up from here and maybe mid June is the bottom. So I’ll spell those out in my summary that I do at the beginning of my show tomorrow if you want to join me so look forward to talking to you tomorrow. Thank you very much.