Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down point 9%. Today. As you know, over the last few weeks, we’ve been getting defensive, moving some of our stock market portions into treasury bill ETFs, and inverse ETFs, that go the opposite direction the S&P 500 has kind of paying off in this particular type of environment, we continue to kind of get into more defensive mode. And I presented why in the past. But one of the things that’s really seems to be driving the market right now is this concept of what’s called the inverted yield curve. So when you look at, say, a 10 year treasury, usually it pays more than a two year Treasury or a three month treasury, for obvious reasons, you have to hold on to it for a lot longer. But once in a while that gets inverted. So right now, the two year Treasury is actually paying more than the 10 year treasury. So you can make more money in the last period of time. And the reason that is is because the bond market is looking forward to seeing weakness in the overall economy. And that’s why you see this yield curve inversion, often recited as something that is a fairly accurate actually, at predicting future recession. So the bond markets had a good track record with that.
Now, the three month Treasury is still paying less than the 10 year treasury, but it’s getting closer and closer and closer, actually, pretty much on a daily basis. And that has an even more accurate predictive capability when the three month gets higher than the 10 year, which is kind of crazy, when you really think about you can make more money on a three month treasury bill than you can with a 10 year. And so these are things that are, you know, pre indicators of possible recessions, they’ll put a lot of pressure on the market, because the market pays attention to this, it’s got a very high accuracy rating. And so you’ll see the market kind of selling off as people are expecting additional weakness in the economy that maybe isn’t priced in, we saw, you know, for example, Microsoft got a downgrade on its earnings estimates from one of the analysts that’s out there and had a big sell off in Microsoft. And so I think that’s the big next leg down is just that the earnings estimates are still very high. I mentioned that yesterday. And they might start to come back down. And lo and behold, we saw that today just with this one company. So I think that’s why we want to stay defensive. And that’s why we want to be careful here and see where things are going to go up tomorrow will be big, because they’re going to release the CPI number. The expectation was 9% for a lot of the things I saw, but today, I did see a Bloomberg survey that said 8.8 Remember, it was 8.6% last month, so maybe that comes in better and we get a surprise and the market jumps back up. But you can tell the last two days with the downturn that’s been happening. There’s definitely some concern about what might happen there. So really interesting. We’ll see what happens tomorrow. And I’ll tell you kind of what I think about the number and what they’re focusing on and such to so look forward to talking to you then thank you