Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Everybody, welcome to Monday, the S&P 500 was down 1.2% Today, tried to rally back up and then really failed. At the end, I think what’s happening on Wednesday with the consumer price index, the CPI reporting is really kind of weighing on the market right now, the expectation is that the CPI will come out at 9% was at 8.6%, which was a really high number last month. So if it comes out at nine, you know, obviously, the Federal Reserve is going to be able to continue their heavy rhetoric about raising rates, and maybe do another three quarter point rate increase. And what’s happening right now, unfortunately, with inflation coming up so much, and the economy is actually starting to soften underneath and a lot of different areas that you could get this situation where, you know, in order to get inflation back down, they end up kicking us into a pretty heavy recession, that’s the big risk. That’s what we’ll be watching for. I will say, if the number comes out, CPI less than 9%, that could be a good thing for the market, because it’s already probably starting to price some of that in, you know, we’ll see if that’s an upside catalyst. But we did have, you know, a nice run up, and then we fell, and we kind of came back to that same level last week. And you know, now maybe we’re backing off of that again.
So we’re having a hard time moving the market really substantially upward through some of these higher resistance areas. I think one of the biggest overhead things that’s happening is that we’re now in two companies, earnings weeks. And you know, one of the things that people are worried about is that the analysts are looking at fairly high earnings growth for the companies still, that hasn’t been adjusted. And so maybe once the earnings reports start to come in, if we hear some negativity, especially for forward guidance, you’ll start to see those expectations readjusted to the downside, the market might have another leg down based on that. And that’s one of the things we’re hearing about quite often. So, you know, we’ll see what happens. Big banks are recording this week, you know, and it just keeps on going all the way through. And so, really, I think most of the movement seems to come around the big tech stocks when they come out. We’ll see how that plays. But nonetheless, that’s what’s happening today. Definitely looking forward to watching what’s going on this week, because there’s a really important week with the CPI number coming out. And so stay tuned and I’ll keep you up to date on what we’re looking at here. Talk to you tomorrow. Thank you very much.