Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up 2.6%. Today, the Federal Reserve raised rates, three quarters of percent, Chairman Powell came out and said some things the market really liked, which is, for example, that they are seeing some of the weakness that’s happening in the economy, they still are very much so focused on inflation, but they finally acknowledged some of the weakness that is coming through. And then talked about the fact that he did not believe that we were currently in a recession, mainly because of how strong the job market was, as far as that goes. So really, you know, the market started responding positively to that. If you remember, so far this year at when the Federal Reserve Chairman has come out, we’ve had a lot of two and 3% runs up in the stock market during the time that he has spoke last time this happened, we gave it all back, you know, on the Thursday after that, so we’ll have to see what happens. You know, back in March, we had a big run up after that. All of those have ultimately failed when we’ve come down to new lows that we established in June, mainly because you have to remember right now that the major motion of the market is to the downside, you know, the tuner day moving average is going down the stock prices below the 200 day moving average. So the minor moves are these up moves, eventually one of those minor moves will change the entire trend and the major move, we’ll get back to the uptrend. Maybe this is it, who knows, there is some room for the market to move up from where it is now, as far as I can see here, because the next level of resistance is about 4%. Higher. And there’s not a lot of resistance in between.
So the market has some free room to run here as far as I as far as I’m concerned. So we’ll see how this plays out. We’ve had some very bizarre things happen this week with companies that have reported earnings, like Microsoft and Google missed on earnings, they were both up six 7%. Today, Visa reported earnings that were very good actually in beat their expectations was actually down today, even in this big update. So sometimes when you see things like that, there are things going on behind the scenes that you need to let play out options expiration, so short covering those types of things. And we’ll see how that goes. You know, we did have met up report, after hours first time ever in the history of the company, they had a decrease in their revenues. And so the stock was down about 4%. You know, after hours so far, we’ll see how that plays out as far as that goes. So, so Apple reporting tomorrow, and we have the gross domestic product coming out tomorrow, we have the PCE inflation number, which is the Feds favorite inflation number coming out on Friday. So lots of good things still coming at us here this week to see you know where things are and how things are going. But the market is showing some good resilience here. And we’ll see if this can continue. Is this the beginning of a reversal so that the major trend is an uptrend? Or is this just another one of these small, you know up trends that eventually falls down and comes down to the bottom?
I think the probability is higher that we go lower, just because the Federal Reserve, you know, very specifically today was kind of didn’t answer the questions about whether they would reverse based on a recession. And I think that means to me that they won’t, they’ll continue to push on inflation. They see inflation as a worse scenario than a recession. And they might be right there actually. And they talked to over and over and over again about getting things back down to 2% inflation. And you know how that impacts families that really can’t afford much in terms of their necessities and how those necessities are getting more and more expensive, and what have you too. So you know, they are going to be pushing on that interest rate, especially if inflation continues to go up, talked again, about fighting headline inflation, which includes food and energy, which is a tough one to do with the Russia situation, especially with Russia now cutting back, they cut back on the northern one pipeline, to bring it gas down to 20% of capacity. And so they continue to do that we’re seeing natural gas prices just skyrocket, they’re 10 times higher in Europe than they were this time last year.
So those are things that I think are going to be kind of fighting the other direction. And if the job market stays strong, and people continue to spend, that’s a problem for the for the Fed to in terms of inflation. And one of the other ironies here that a lot of people don’t realize is that an upward moving stock market is actually something the stock market the Fed does not want right now, because that encourages more consumer spending. So you know, one of the things they’ve done in the past is after these meetings, if we had a big run up, we’ve had some of the other fed governors start doing, you know, interviews where they’re being a bit more negative, so we’ll see if that plays out over the next week or not. So anyway, things to watch out for good to have a good update. Expect some possibility of some more runs up. Hopefully we break through that resistance and then maybe we are really changing the tree antier so we’ll see how this plays out but exciting time to be watching lots to be learned right now about the stock market and how this works and I look forward to talking to you tomorrow thank you