Transcript:
Easan Arulanantham:
So what, what goes into the CPI number?
Tom Vaughan:
The CPI. So CPI, of course, is consumer price index. This is the big number that they use to determine inflation. There are lots of different inflation measures. There’s PPI producer price index, which is wholesale inflation, there’s PCE personal consumption expenditure, which is the one that fed likes the most. But CPI is the one everybody knows the most about, right? So, you know, what is it? How does it How does it you know, what’s it made up? And basically, it’s a basket of goods they’re looking at, and they’re looking at, you know, how much did it increase month over month, so versus last month. And the most common number that people know is how much increase year over year, so July of this year versus July last year. So I do have a visual, we can show that kind of breaks this down, this comes from the Pew Research Center. And you look, a third of it is shelter. So shelters a big categories is homes, rent, even, you know, hotel stays all these different types of things. And so in food is another big component, right? Almost 14% for food, transportation, commodities, and energy, and medical services, right? Those are kind of those are the biggies education sits in there, transportation services, and then all of these little things. So like a lot of times we think about, you know, apparel and those types of things. And really, you know, that’s only 3% of this basket. So if you’re spending more on clothes, it’s not going to have as big an impact on CPI, as people. So if you look at this closely, it’s very fascinating.
Some of these are interrelated, the cost of energy goes up, that makes the cost of food go up, makes transportation services go up, right? It could make everything on there more expensive, the cost of shelter goes up. That’s why like, if you go someplace where rents are low, both commercial and personal rents, oftentimes, you’re going to that restaurant, it’s a lot cheaper, right? You know, my in laws live in Wichita, Kansas, I go out to eat there, I’m always kind of surprised at how much cheaper it is than here. But if you look at what they’re paying for housing, rent, commercial rent, you know, all those things, it’s a lot less. And so that can filter through to food. And so anyway, that’s kind of fascinating to see some of the interrelationships on this thing.
Easan Arulanantham:
Tom Vaughan:
Yeah. And so some things that also take in mind is that the CPI number, they like to also do substitution. And so say, you have apples and bananas, but apples went up 4%, and NAS went up 3%, they’re going to use bananas for their number. So they’re going to try and take, you know, what is the lower number. So because they feel bananas and apples, if you had a choice, one’s more expensive, you’re gonna pick the other one, they’re kind of the same for a consumer.
I tell you what, my wife wouldn’t agree with that. She doesn’t like bananas. But nonetheless, you know, so but it is interesting. And actually, the CPI number is has been somewhat controversial over the years, just because it really does depend on on how you spend money. Yeah, right. I mean, how do you how does it impact you, I mean, I was just talking to a client yesterday, and she says, You know, I don’t drive that much anymore. You know, I have a few things that I’m doing. But I’m retired now. So the price of gas doesn’t, I don’t care. Now, it is costing you more for other things that you might be buying, because somebody is having to drive to get her food to the grocery store, you know, whatever it might be, she did say that the grocery store cost had gone up quite a bit. And she noticed that but then so we actually found some really interesting charts to kind of break down, like based on your age, where people are spending their money. And so it showed sort of shows like this is this is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is a 52 year old, and where they average spend their money. This is kind of hard to read. Yeah, because I will just give you the kind of generic concept here because it is kind of fascinating, got a huge amount of money for their home, I can I can sympathize with that. There’s a pretty good slice that white slice down here in healthcare. And then that dark one up there is gas. Yeah, so And actually, all of those pieces are kind of, you know, energy related, that are in that one section of that circle. Now, if I if I move down to somebody a little bit older here, you can see how things shift. So here’s a 67 year old, if I go back and forth between those … healthcare got bigger.
Easan Arulanantham:
Your transportation costs and your gas went also got smaller.
Tom Vaughan:
They got smaller, right. So again, depends on where that inflation is and where it’s really hitting as far as that goes. And then let’s go one age older here we have a 76 year old health care guide even even larger, and so if you watch that white one you can see it shrinks based on age or grows based on older age. Watch the gasoline it goes Down, Down, Right? Which makes sense, right? It just you’re not driving off to work and those types of things. And so, but that, that component of homeownership and the cost of homeownership, and that’s where mortgage rates come into play for, for, in fact, affecting the, the, you know, the overall cost of living that rent as another one too. So those are those are big. And so you know, they’re the CPI is trying to match one basket to a variety of people. And so your personal inflation might be different. As far as that goes, depending on what you’re doing. You know, if you’re driving a lot of miles and gas went from, you know, $2.85 to $5.85, or something, you know, because a lot of times people are commuting into the valley to take a job, sometimes those aren’t high paying jobs, and they can’t afford to live here in the Valley. So that’s really tough, because now you’re using tons of money to kind of get back and forth to work. So it really changes the dynamics as far as that goes.
Easan Arulanantham:
But yeah, yeah, we’ll throw the link for this article, into the description, the replay, so you can go and play with it, because you can hover on each of these kind of categories, and it’ll show you kind of like differences, also with the numbers. So it’s a lot of fun to play with.
Tom Vaughan:
Yeah, that’s very fascinating, actually, because you can see, you know, how much people are spending on restaurants and, you know, what they call full service meals and all of these things. So it’s, I think it’s, you know, an interesting study as far as that goes.