Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was down point zero 7%. Today, I consider that a pretty good result after really good yesterday, just getting something sideways today and not giving it all back is a really good sign we held above that 4200 level on the S&P 500, we not have this big giants up some amount of support, that was resistance that we got through the Producer Price Index, which is wholesale inflation was down a half percent. That was more than expected. Inflation is continuing to show some erosion and predominantly revolving around energy costs, gas cost, those types of things. That could bode well, today, the average gas price in the US dropped below $4. And again, here we are in August, the report that will come out for the August inflation will be in September, really just before the Federal Reserve meets. And so you could have another drop down and inflation, which might allow the Federal Reserve to do a half a point rate increase instead of three quarters. And the markets basically now betting on that. And we know the other piece that I keep hearing is maybe to one quarter increases in their other two meetings.
So basically one more percent for the whole year. And so that’s really important, you know, the markets looking forward, it’s seeing these commodity prices, like oil and those types of things to come down off of their highs. And so the markets looking forward to maybe some softer inflation. As far as that goes. We had some other key things happen today that were interesting. You know, the market is almost halfway back from the total loss all the way to the bottom. It’s gotta get to 4234. We’re at 4207. If it closes above that it’s retraced half of its loss at Summit significant historically, market has not reestablished a new low when it closes above that 50% retracement level. So we were actually above that for a while today, kind of almost in there and then fell off towards the end of the day. So we’ll see what happens, you know, tomorrow or next week, if we can get above that, kind of have a checklist of things show the 200 day moving average, the different resistance, the trendline and this 50% retracement that I’m looking at it as kind of barriers to get through and things to jump through to say, Okay, we’re really looking at a recovery here.
So still going down that direction. As I mentioned yesterday, you know, we’re working back in all of our exposure to the stock market that we had before. Just getting back to, you know, the same levels that we had in all of our models. Before we got defensive, you might get defensive again as things fall apart, but they’ve got a lot of good things going on and breaking through that resistance that we just broke through yesterday. gives me some hope that the market can at least kind of hang up here for a while and maybe have a little run if not start to really recover. So anyway, look forward to see what’s going to happen tomorrow. You can join me on my show talk money with Tom on YouTube 1215 to one o’clock Pacific time. I’ll give you a summary of what I saw happening in the during the week here for those for the market, and any questions you might have about anything else you can ask at that particular show. So look forward to seeing you there. Thank you very much.