Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was down point 6%. Today, really pretty much a continuation of yesterday, when you have that type of a downturn, it’s very difficult for people to step in and turn this around. So we kind of had more or less a sideways day, if you really look at the price action, there was some green on the charts and what have you. But I think we’re probably in for some more downturn here, we’re looking for a capitulation standpoint, where we hit kind of that big stretch to the downside, the VIX, the fear index goes up high, we haven’t really seen that we need to kind of clear out the rest of the sellers here. You know, when that happens, could be tomorrow could be a month from now, but that we’re looking for kind of that type of action to finish this off as far as that goes. So one of the things that happened today was that the leading economic indicator came out. This is I talked about this yesterday, this is one of my preferred gauges for what upcoming recession. And so when it peaks out, drops, maybe about 1% from its high, that’s a pretty good time to get more defensive, in my opinion, as long as the S&P 500 is also coming down, which obviously it is, so the April number came out at point 3% down, mainly driven by the consumer survey that they do.
So people are pessimistic, obviously, with inflation or China’s situation, you know, rightfully so. The other one that drove it down was the new housing starts, there’s like 10 indicators inside this overall index. So new housing starts were down also. And you know, obviously, with mortgage rates going up as much as they are new housing starts are going to come down. Now, it can go up and down on a monthly basis and not mean much. So it was down last February, Mark is still above, you know, and moved on pretty well. From that, we have a situation where it actually came down in January, and then rallied up in February, March and March was the all time high. So we are point 3% off the all time high. We’ll wait and see what happens with the main numbers which come out in the middle of June as far as that goes. So very interesting timeframe to figure out all these different cross currents, of course, and so really fascinating what’s going on here.
Anyway, I think at some point in time, we’re gonna look back and see some of the opportunities that are here that are pretty amazing. I’m looking at Target, you know, they great company, really well thought of selling at a decent multiple, even is considered a defensive play to a certain degree. And yesterday, they missed their earnings report, and they dropped 25% or down another 5%. Today, they’re selling at kind of a 10 times P E ratio, which is pretty cheap. I think we’re gonna look back at some point here and say, hey, there was some pretty good bargains there. And so that’s why we’re doing a rebalancing and those types of things. You know, things can get cheaper, that’s for sure. But you know, we’ll just keep watching this as far as that goes. So, look forward to seeing you tomorrow. If you want to join me for my talk money with Tom show from 1215 to one o’clock Pacific Time, I do a summary of the market, then you can ask questions. If you have questions about the market or the economy or retirement planning. You can do that at that time, too. So look forward to seeing you then. Thank you very much.