Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Hello, everybody, welcome to Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up 1.23%. Today, even better, the Small Cap index, Russell 2000 was up 2.7%. Today, when people start buying small caps, they feel more comfortable about the market, it can kind of give you some signals for what’s happening here. And the market is just going fantastic. We gapped up this morning, when it opened, based on news coming out of Russia, Ukraine, that things might be improving there, we’ll have to see how that plays out. But even without that this market is just on such a roll. I think people are going to continue to buy into this, just because of the fact that there’s a fear of kind of missing out. There’s a lot of money to be made right now. It’s why we wanted to stay fully invested, which we’ve done all year, we haven’t gotten out of the market. I’ve said before the average rate of return in a downturn when there’s no recession for the S&P 500 Going back to World War Two is down 15%. We ended up down 14.6 From the very highest point back in November to the very lowest point really on February 24, when the Ukraine was invaded down 14.6. And so the recovery time without a recession is four months. So that’s not too bad. And so that’s the key issue, can we determine whether there’s going to be a recession or not?
Based on my opinion, what I look at the things that I think are important, especially company earnings, and some of the impacts on those, I don’t see a recession happening here in the short term. I know that there are a lot of people that do, I think they’re missing out on the total liquidity situation that’s happening, too many people are trying to look back at too many different scenarios that don’t relate well enough to today. This is a pandemic timeframe, where trillions of dollars were pushed out into the economy, for support. And that is coming through in some of these earnings numbers and coming through eventually into the stock market returns. So again, great time to be buying on the dips. If there is a recession, the stock market, average drop is 36%. And the average recovery time is 57 months. That’s a huge difference. So it’s definitely something to be aware of different strategies for different situations. We identified the strategy in several of our videos back in November, we’ve stuck with this. This has been working out really well had we’ve had big runs and some of the things that we own, which I’m very, very excited about. So looking forward to seeing what’s going to happen tomorrow. We’re only 4% away from the all time high in the S&P 500 I wouldn’t be surprised to see us get back to that. Maybe there’s some kind of dip that does happen before that happens. But boy, there’s a lot of momentum right now that’s going on and I think that it’s gonna it’s going to continue to drive this market forward. You know, this is a melt up and it’s really fun to watch. So, look forward to seeing what’s gonna happen tomorrow. Thank you very much.