Transcript:
Tom Vaughan:
Everybody, welcome to Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up 1.13%. Today, today was another really significant day for a whole bunch of reasons. First of all, it’s the fifth out of the last six days where we’ve had a very substantial movement, we’ve come up 8%, since the bottom that we hit last, last Monday. And that’s a huge move for a very short period of time, we broke through the 200, day moving average, which is incredible. This is what we call melt up in our business. And it’s just an amazing thing to watch. And there’s a whole bunch of things that are important about this, you know, first of all, get above the 200 day moving average to people that pay attention to a lot of the different charting, put emphasis on that and they’ll buy when it’s above and not when it’s below. And so even some of the institutions follow that rule as far as that goes. So you’ll see some money moving in. And we certainly saw some good power today. And these are very powerful news, we also have had some kind of, you know, some discounts really a lot of things that were down substantial amount that people are now starting to buy again. And I think it’s this fear of missing out that happens, we’re seeing the market just crawl right through all these things that it used to worry about Federal Reserve comes out yesterday, talking about getting more aggressive. And the market responds very positively today, again, go back to the thesis of the whole process for the year, in my opinion, which is that earnings are excellent, they continue to grow. Nike comes out after hours yesterday with really good earnings, we see you know, a continuation of the market coming, I would be surprised if the market didn’t have another continuation of movement through earnings season, just because I think earnings season is still going to be pretty good this year.
Even with inflation, if you look at the Nike numbers, they still increase their profit margin and an inflationary time period. That just shows you how much power these companies have to raise price if they need to, even in this scenario where their costs are going up, because there’s just so much money out there chasing these goods. And so I think that’s the key there, we’re looking at a scenario that’s quite different than things we’ve seen in the past. And you know, really not to give up on the market this year. You know, my premise was, we would have a volatile first half of the year as the market absorbs all these things. And then we could have a really good second half of the year. So far, that premise is still there. Because the basics are here, rates are still low, we still got a lot of things going for us. We guess inflation is high. But that’s caused by a lot of demand, and some problems on the supply side. Those are things that are terrible. It’s really bad scenario when demand is very low. Right. And that’s one of the things that I would be most concerned about. And that’s not what’s happening right now. So again, eventually, the market kind of gets back going, I think the US is a recipient of some dollars from around the world. You know, we have relatively low exposure to the rest of situation. And you know, the situation in China, where the market is not doing as well and in Europe and what have you. So if you’re an international fund manager, you might be looking at the US Navy, we’re getting some of the money from that also. So really incredible time for you to actually sit I think things are going to continue to do well here. We’re bound to have some slowdown in this melt up, you know, but it makes it a lot more difficult when you have that much momentum going to the upside for it to completely reverse and go all the way back down to the lower than we had back on the morning of the 24th when the February when Ukraine was invaded. So things are great for the stock market right now. So we’ll look see what’s going to happen tomorrow. Look forward to talking to you about that then thank you