Transcript
Everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was up a half a percent today. And more importantly for us the model positions that we have were up way more than that 3%, 2%, 1%, everything except for energy today, beat the S&P 500 that we have in our models. A really good day, I’m hoping that today is sort of a precursor for what we can see here in the future. I don’t know that we’re out of the woods yet, in terms of having that nice smooth upward glide path, I still think we have some rockiness to come. But and one of the things to keep in mind about the end of the quarter, there’s a couple of important pieces.
Number one, these big pensions that are out there rebalance, oftentimes at the end of the quarter. And so for example, if you look at what happened from January to now, you know, stock markets up a little bit, but most of the bond markets actually down. So let’s say as a pension, you have a target of a 60% stock and 40% bond, right now, you might be 65% stock and 35% bond just because the you know the difference that happened since January. And so you’re going to rebalance and you’re going to sell some stock and buy some bonds. And that’s been happening as we go right now I read an article where they’re estimating would be about a $19 billion movement from stock to bond just in that rebalancing. So some of the, you know, washiness and softness that we’re seeing here at the end of the quarter, is that’s what’s happening. As far as that goes. Now, that might be mostly done, you know, there’s that’s those are all private pensions, it’s not something that’s that easy to see.
But the other thing that’s I think, really important is that there is a tremendous amount of money in these what are called Momentum Funds, Momentum ETFs Momentum Mutual Funds. And what they do is they look at the market for the last six or 12 months kind of depends on you know, the, the algorithm that they’re using, and then they choose stocks that have had a lot of momentum, basically, they’ve done very well in that timeframe. And then they hold on to them for another six to 12 months, again, depending on you know, the strategy. Well, the end of March, here is a big time for those to rebalance.
Now, if you look back, for the last six months, value stocks have been one of the key momentum high earning stocks, you know, stocks in terms of price growth, especially since the ninth of November, when things really started to take off. And prior to that all these momentum holdings are always growth, because that’s where the momentum has been for a long, long time, actually. So we might see a big rotation out of growth into value coming here next week with this particular rebound. So that’s something I’m excited about. And again, you know, we’re starting to see some movement here, money’s coming in. One of the things that’s really fascinating about this particular area, right now, you know, the articles that I’m reading, the big money is been moving into these reopening stocks, it’s a fairly obvious trade as far as that goes.
But we’re on the sides of the hedge funds and some of the big money as far as that goes, they’re, they’re buying value stocks, they’re buying reopening stocks, and they’re hedging against inflation by using inverses or shorting the bond market, which is exactly what we have. So we’re kind of in the same spot as some of this big money. And when you see that money come down, okay, so that value stuff came down, you know, a fair amount over the last, you know, 10 days or so, the rubber band that I always talked about that can stretch, you know, and then snap back, it goes the other way, too, can stretch too far down and snap back up.
So, you know, that’s something that I think is happening certainly today that it opened up, down. And then man, we saw some huge buying come in and just rallied all day long. So again, sometimes these downturns are the good thing. It’s what creates the momentum, it starts the buying process, and then everybody starts to get in. And so hopefully, we’ll see some continuation here. But I don’t know that we’re in that smooth timeframe, like we were for big parts of last year, where the market just continues to go up, you know, week after week, at least in our holdings.
Today was spectacular, very, very happy. But I still think we’ve got some choppiness here and hopefully we will get to that smooth period and really end up with a fantastic year. So anyway, that’s what happened today. Very interested in seeing what’s going to happen tomorrow. And I’ll talk to you then. Thank you very much.