Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Friday, the S&P 500 was down a little bit over 1.1% today. And there was some important pieces that happened. First of all, we had a fairly broad downturn of the 415 indexes that I’m following as a whole, only 30 were up today. Now, some of those were ours. That’s great. But we had a day like that last week, and now we’re having another one now. So it’s something to think about, what I really focus on a lot is trend and which direction things are going. And I call it the major trend and the minor trend. So right now the major trend is up.
And right now what’s happening so far is the minor trend is down. But we have to watch out for the minor trend to turn into the major trend, in other words for this to turn into a bigger downturn. So I look a lot at moving averages. And I like those, they helped me a lot. And so I look at the 20 and the 50 and the 200-day moving average. At the top of this downturn, we were you know, price above the 20-day moving average, and all three moving averages were going up perfect. And now you know, we broke down to the 20-day moving average, the 20-day moving average is now moving down.
And then today what’s significant is that we closed below the 50-day moving average, which hasn’t happened since the 24th of February, which was very near the last top. And so it’s something to watch for now. I make my decisions on a weekly data. And so if you look at the weekly data set of the daily, wow, we are in an uptrend every single indicator has shows an uptrend. But it is a point in time to make sure we’re paying attention and figure out whether we need to become a little bit more defensive at some point. And it continues down to become more. So there are some things to consider here, we’ve got the presidential election and the stimulus package that’s going to come or not come combined with the seasonality of September and October being volatile months in general.
So gotta watch out that we don’t get kind of faked out of the market here. And this is not enough of a trend change to do anything with but it is making me focus on those aspects. Because I think that’s important right now. That’s the key thing to look at right now. How’s the trend? Is it changing? Or is this just part of the upturn? So again, similar to what we saw in June, right, it was a whole three week period in June, where we went down or sideways. And then we ended up with July and August, which were fantastic. And so we seem to be doing something very similar to that. But we have to watch out so just something to think about. So that’s what we’re watching for right now. And let’s see what happens on Monday. I do think this is a good time to be paying attention. I look forward to talking to you then. Thank you.