Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Monday, the S&P 500 unfortunately, today was down a little bit over 1.6%. On the good news front, most of our targeted indexes did better than the S&P 500 of them was even up 1% today, and that was one of the Clean Energy pieces. So wasn’t a terrible day for us in terms of relative measure versus the market. But what we’re seeing right now is the market readjusting his probabilities to the stimulus. So let’s say for example, the market was assuming a 35% chance that we would have a stimulus before the election. And now that’s dropped to 10%, because we’re getting closer and there’s been more, you know, bad news, really about that stimulus negotiation, the markets going to drop, which is what we saw today, really, throughout the day.
Now, there is still some probability for a stimulus having to do with the election itself. So for example, if you have a Biden president and a Democratic Senate and House, in my opinion, that’s the best chance for a big stimulus bill to come through. And so that’s part of it. You could have Trump as the President and the Republican Senate like we have now, I still think you’d get a stimulus. I don’t know if it would be as big, but still get a stimulus. If Biden was in the White House, and the Republicans still control the Senate, I think he might get no stimulus or something very small as far as that goes. And so right now, looking at the polls, it is supposed to be a Biden White House and a Democrat Senate. And so there is already a factored into the market, right now, some big stimulus that would be coming, you know, early next year. And so as the polls change, or as the actual results happen from the election, you’ll see adjustments to that scenario, as far as that goes. And we know polls aren’t the be all end all.
But again, the market is a probability machine, it’s looking forward, trying to find those situations that thinks it could be good or bad for the market. And this is one of them in the stimulus is a big deal. I mean, they’re talking about trillions of dollars that would come out, you know, whether we think it’s a good idea or bad idea, you know, it’s happening. And so the market has to kind of react to that and deal with that. So today’s downturn, you know, was a reflection of probably no stimulus happening before the election, and that probability being reduced. So I think things are going to be fine.
You know, we still have a lot of pieces here that didn’t fall that much, again, showing that there’s interest in the parts that we have. And that’s what I look for. I think that’s a really big signal on those down days. So I think it’s going to be okay, and let’s see what happens tomorrow. And I look forward to talking to you about that then. Thank you.