Transcript
Well, hello, everybody, welcome to Monday, the S&P 500 was down about a half percent today. It was down more, and then it came back up. So that’s a good thing I like when that happens, actually. But really, the big news today was about the virus in the vaccine. I think on the good news side, so Moderna released their kind of final results 94.1%, you know, success rate with the people that got the vaccine. On top of that, there was some other really good news in there. Only 11 of the 196 cases of the virus came from the people that got the vaccine, the rest were from the placebo, all 30 of the people that had severe cases were on the placebo side. So at least in that case, it was 100% effective against severe cases.
That’s really good news. So they’re applying, you know, to the FDA, just like Pfizer and BioNTech did. So Goldman Sachs came out with a report today also that was really interesting, took the economists that took all their people, and they took a look at what was happening with the vaccines, you know, the timelines, you know, what’s the testing that’s happening? What phase are then you know, approvals, manufacturing, distribution, acceptance rate by the public, right, because that’s a big issue. And what they said their projection was that 50% of Americans would be vaccinated by April, well, that’s a big deal, actually. And that by October, they will start to vaccinate kids under age 12, which is a good thing. And then by the end of the year, we’d be at a 70% vaccination rate.
So they talked about how there’s a lot of pent up demand, how there’s a lot of people that are looking, you know, at this and saying, wow, you know, I haven’t been able to go anywhere, do anything and eat out and all those things, especially since we’re probably looking at an even stricter schedule for what we can do, you know, as this virus grows. And so we might see some kind of explosive spending that happens, you know, you can go to the mall, you can go travel. And so I think that’s not built into the market right now. I think that’s really, really good news. If that actually does happen, we can have a pretty explosive year, throw in the possibility of a stimulus program, even if it’s small, because of Republican-controlled Senate are bigger, because it’s a Democrat-controlled Senate, you could have that’s like rocket fuel to the market for next year, potentially. So I don’t think the best or even the sort of best scenario is built into these prices that we’re looking at right now, this could go a lot more.
So you know, there’s lots of things that can happen on the negative side, right, lots. But if you look at what could happen on the positive side, here, this is and so far, it has happened. I mean, the vaccines are coming out really on the timeline that’s been talked about for quite a while. And it’s sort of working. So that that’s that’s really, really good news is I was very excited about that. One thing I would consider I have a lot of you travel a lot. And so you haven’t been able to travel and you’re looking to travel, you might consider, you know, going out and see if there’s some bargains that you could get for the end of next year, you know, the second half of next year. You know, based on what Goldman Sachs is saying, by the summer, things might get back to normal, I think you’ll get a pretty good price. But on the other side of that is very important to understand. There’s been so much cutback in terms of supply, there’s less cruise ships, there’s less airplanes, there’s less restaurants, all of these things.
And so you know, if everybody at once can go out and start to spend that money, the demand is going to be higher, the price is going to go up. So if you wait until you know the second half of next year, but could travel, you might spend a lot more now, there’s a risk to doing it now. But maybe you can negotiate something where you could move that, that money in those types of things. But just something to think about that I think is fascinating. So really, really good news today about the vaccines. I hope everything continues to move forward. It looks like it has so far. And I think that has some really big impact potential on the market going forward too. So look forward to talking to you about tomorrow, and we’ll see how things are going. Thank you