Transcript
Hello, everybody, welcome to Thursday, the S&P 500 was actually down a little bit today about .13%. But we had some pieces do really well today. I mentioned yesterday, sometimes when there’s a drop in an upward moving market, it creates this kind of buying frenzy. And that’s what we saw today, for sure. The innovative healthcare pieces that we have in our portfolio, were actually up 6.2% and 4%. Today, which is fantastic. The innovative technology pieces that we have are at 4.4% and 2.5%. And the two clean energy pieces that we had today were up 1.5%, and 1%. Those are all really good numbers for what is essentially a down day in the stock market. So good stuff should see some, you know, nice moves in the portfolios today, kind of getting us moving in the right direction.
And what I wanted to highlight today had to do with some kind of corroborating articles that are coming out about what might happen next year. So on Monday, I posted a video, if you didn’t see it, it’s worth seeing, in my opinion, where I went through what I consider a good case scenario for next year. And lo and behold, there’s been a couple of articles that come out. So on Tuesday, there was a group of UCLA economists that have basically come out and said that there is a good chance we could see something like the roaring 20s. From the you know, vaccines working in 2021. And then what they’re expecting, like in the short term here, you know, we might have kind of a slowing, read this off here. So, “Slower growth for the US economy in the short term, or higher unemployment, and difficult for paying bills for many people, again, because of the lockdowns and the virus that’s happening right now.” But they’re predicting that we’d see a gross domestic product go from 1.8%, all the way up to 6%, towards the middle of next year, that’s a huge number actually, for the US if that does work out. And then that continuing to grow in 2022. They’re also talking about how the unemployment rate here, especially in California, would drop from 8.9%, down to 6.9, next year, 5.2, in 2022, to 4.4, in 2023. So that’s pretty good information. I really liked that.
And then JP Morgan today, came out with a report, they are moving up there estimate for the growth on the S&P 500 next year to 25%. And they’re expecting for a vast majority of that to happen in the first half of next year. But they like that, and they talked about how the stocks that are the most beaten down they think will do the best. And that’s why we have our value components. And what they’re saying from category basis next year. They think consumer discretionary, energies, financials, healthcare, and semiconductors. We have all of those in our portfolio right now ready for the move in those areas if the vaccine works out. And then lastly, today, Forbes came out with an article talking about you know, what were some of the possibilities for how the market could, you know, do quite well next year. And the head of the article, the title was, you know, the stock market is on the verge of a monster rally. Okay, that sounds great.
They mentioned that last month in November, investors had a record $115 billion that was put into the stock market through funds. And that’s the biggest inflow in 20 years, they’re talking about how the Fed will keep rates down. And that should really help the market. They’re expecting a growth bomb that’s coming from the $3.5 trillion in excess money that’s in savings. They had a really good piece in here talking about how 2020 there’s $1.5 trillion dollars more of savings than your average year. So again, and it wasn’t just you know, just the wealthy that did this. This is across all income ranges, including the bottom 50% working class families, they’re talking about the pent up demand leading to a boom and you’ll probably see that starting in real estate and real estate’s a huge issue because there’s so many different organizations, you know, construction contractors, of course, and, you know, your, your, all of your suppliers, your mortgage broker, that’s just amazing, Real estate’s a huge driver for economic growth. And, you know, that could create, you know, this whole pent up demand.
They talk in here about, you know, people are gonna want to get out of their pajamas and get on a plane and go travel somewhere, you know, maybe go sip margaritas on a cruise ship and what have you. And, much like I mentioned on Monday, they also talked about how the fact that you know, most of these companies have become lean and mean, and we’re going to see this massive influx and everybody’s gonna be scrambling around trying to keep up with that influx, but that does create a situation of high profitability. So I thought that was great corroborating you know, information, you know, from UCLA economists from the JP Morgan, from Forbes and etc. And people are starting to kind of see what could be possible next year. Again, I think the big three vaccine, if it works, creates pent up demand. And then you get zero interest rates which creates a situation where money is going to start flowing out when people start feeling better. And so anyway, that that’s, you know, I think some really fascinating things. Great day for us today. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. I look forward to talking to you then. Thank you very much.