Transcript
Everybody, welcome to Monday, the S&P 500 was up .7%. And today like Friday, we saw interest rates come down. And we saw growth stocks, technology, stocks, and what have you really rule the day, and have a very good day all together, actually, the Dow is even up, which is generally a value type index. But if you look inside the Dow, the stocks that were leading by far were all the tech stocks that are on there. So really, it was one of those days where we’re seeing this kind of counter cyclical trend, because the theme is we’re heading into recovery. And we’ve got all of these companies who have been beaten down who have now slimmed up their, you know, staffing and, and whatnot, and got lean and mean, like, for example, I was reading about a shortage of airline pilots. So when we all try to go out there, and you know, do some travel, chances are those companies going to make a lot more money, because they’ve been able to cut back a lot of their costs as far as that goes, so that the travel stock sold off today, the leisure stock sold off today, the bank sold off the energy sold off, you know, all of the things that should be moving in the right direction.
Now, what that means is that we’re just a little bit early into the cycle. You know, we’re still here in March, the vaccine is still rolling out, there is still some fear out there about some of these variants, it could be justified, you know, Paris has closed down, they’ve had some issues in Italy, they’ve had some issues in Brazil. And so there’s some thought process that maybe the recovery could be, you know, sidelined, I would find that a little bit surprising, because I don’t think here in America, especially, which is where most of our stocks are, there is a big appetite for another large lockdown. I think we, you know, use the masking and the social distancing, and just roll the vaccine out as fast as possible. And we might be able to get through this and get some recovery going. And, you know, generally speaking value stocks outperform when there’s an economic increase. So they’re very sensitive to the economy. And what happens is often you’ll see technology sell off, or at least soften up during those period of time, because these value companies create these giant outperformance earnings supposed to be here. And they come in way up here, because the profits are way higher than expected. And it sucks all the money away from all of those tech stocks.
And so that’s what you really want to watch for here. I don’t want to go chasing after those. I mean, we already have some of those in our taxable accounts. And they did quite well today. And when I’m really talking about, you know, what I’m talking about our models are the things that are in our non taxable accounts, or IRAs and Roth IRAs and those types of things, which did not do well today. But I want some patients, I would actually be a buyer here, you should be accumulating these value stocks, and these specifically, these recovery stocks, they have a long ways to go before they get back up to to full valuation as these companies start to recover. And it’s an unbelievable environment, you know, there’s 350,000 restaurants have gone out of business, which is a travesty. But that also means that those restaurants that did survive, will end up with a lot more patrons, and you’re gonna have more people that want to go out to eat than normal and less restaurants to go to that means higher profits. And so this is what’s happening. And so today, it didn’t happen. Friday, it didn’t happen.
It’s okay. Let’s just hang in there. And we’ll just keep accumulating and accumulating and waiting. And then it’s going to happen. And when it happens, it should be really, really fun. So a little bit different than last year, where we kind of had that consistent growth, you know, week after week after week, this year, I think we’re gonna have to wait a little bit for things to really play out as this back and forth, you know, war between growth and value goes on. So, but I feel very, very strongly, we’re in the right place. I have a plan. If we’re not in the right place that I’ll move out. But you know, I look at the theme, the theme of super strong recovery, easy to see. And then I look at the trends. The trends are still even though today and Friday wasn’t great. The trend is fantastic. Look at a nine-month chart of any of these pieces by the week. It’s an incredible trend really strong, actually.
So you know right now, I think it’s just taken a break. And then you know, this might be a place where it gets down cheap enough and people start to buy I’d be buying here I’d be buying if it got cheaper. I really think this is a good place to be. So we’ll see what happens. I look forward to talking to you tomorrow. Thank you very much.